In what will be a rematch of the 2023 Western Conference Finals, the Los Angeles Lakers are set to take on the defending champion Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. After LA’s win over the Pelicans in the seven versus eight seed Play-In game, the Lake Show locked in their matchup with the team from the Mile High City.
The Nuggets nearly finished with the top seed in the West for the second season in a row, ending up with the two seed after the final day of regular season action. They will continue their title defense against LeBron James, Anthony Davis and company. Many are ready to call this series a wrap before it begins and assume Denver will have an easy win after they swept the Lakers last season.
But in reality, there is a growing list of reasons the Nuggets may not have such an easy series with LA after all. These are the five biggest factors that could lead to the Lakers actually upsetting the defending champions.
1. Improved guard play for the Lakers
One area where LA was thoroughly dominated in last year’s matchup with Denver in the conference finals was backcourt play. Jamal Murray scored over 30 points per game for the Nuggets while shooting north of 50% from the floor over the four games in the series.
On the other side, D’Angelo Russell struggled mightily for the Lakers, averaging less than seven points for the series. But recently, D’Lo has strung together some really solid performances and seems to be playing his best basketball since re-joining the Lakers last year.
In addition, LA now has Gabe Vincent to throw on the floor for additional three-point shooting and on-ball defense as well. These guys will not be the reason the Lakers have a chance at winning the series, but they can certainly be a plus.
2. Nuggets are not invincible
After last year’s playoff run and with how they dominated the postseason, there are plenty of legitimate reasons to view the Nuggets as title favorites once again. In the 2023 playoffs, Denver became just the third team this century to lose four or less games over the course of an entire postseason.
The other two teams to accomplish that feat? The 2001 Lakers and the 2017 Warriors, both of which are viewed as all-time dominant squads. I think it is easy to overlook just how game-breaking the Nuggets were last season, and some would argue this is because they do not have a player that is as visually dazzling as a Stephen Curry or a Kobe Bryant.
But the fact of the matter is that Denver was as statistically dominant as any team since 2000 in 2023. They have obviously been far from mediocre this year, but it is a different season nonetheless. The Nuggets have showed a few exploitable flaws this season, as evidenced by losses like their unexpected defeat to San Antonio last week.
Once we stop seeing the Nuggets as this immovable object and accept the reality that they can be beaten, we can realize that it is far from a guarantee they take home a series win over the Lakers.
3. Last year’s series was closer than it appeared
We are all aware of arguably the biggest storyline headed into this series. The narrative that the Nuggets are the worst matchup possible for the Lakers has a lot of supporting evidence. Denver swept LA in last year’s Western Conference Finals and took all four games against the Lakers during this year’s regular season as well. By all accounts, the defending champs have the Lake Show’s number.
But when we start to peel back the layers a bit, we remember that although the Nuggets swept last year, they were not simply running away with each game and winning by 20 or 30 points. It was in fact a very close series, and one that Nikola Jokic described this week as the team’s hardest during their championship run.
Call what Jokic said propaganda all you want, but the fact of the matter is that the Lakers had a chance of winning each of the four games against the Nuggets in last year’s playoffs. They lost Game 1 by six points, Game 2 by five, Game 3 by 11, and Game 4 by two. The difference in the series was literally Denver’s ability to execute down the stretch of close games.
Of course, it is not as simple as Darvin Ham looking at his players and telling them to execute better in close game scenarios. It was the talent and preparedness of the Nuggets that allowed them to best LA in those clutch moments. But if that is something the Lakers can turn to work in their favor this time around, watch out.
4. A healthy Anthony Davis
There is zero question that no matter what happens in this series, Denver has the best player heading in to the matchup. Nikola Jokic is the unquestioned best player on the planet, and he will have the crown until someone else takes it from him.
But with that being said, the Lakers have who many would consider the second-best player in the series. Anthony Davis has been on an absolute tear for LA this season, playing the most games in a season of his career, and putting up some of the most dominant numbers for a big man in the association.
He has been the unquestioned best player on the Lakers’ roster, and bringing him into this series at the height of his powers is the best case scenario for LA. We know that Jokic has historically had his way with AD, but Davis has scarcely been this healthy while playing at this high a level at any point in his career.
Put simply, Anthony Davis playing his A+ game is the best chance the Lakers have of winning this series. There are virtually no scenarios where they move on to face either the Timberwolves or Suns with a subpar performance from their best player, and right now he is in excellent position to bring big contributions.
5. The underdog factor
This is without a doubt the biggest reason the Lakers may actually have a chance of taking down the champs this time around. Last May, the conversation around the top-seeded Nuggets was an interesting one. Though they had held the best record in the Western Conference for months, many doubted whether they should even be considered a true championship contender.
We had seen them fall short of making the conference finals the previous two years, albeit with Jamal Murray sitting on the sideline hampered by injury. As a result, there was a lot of question surrounding if they would even make it past the Phoenix Suns in the second round.
So of course when they did reach the West Finals to face the Lakers, many were skeptical. After all, LA was riding high and looked like the hottest team left in the playoffs. History favored the Lakers, and it seemed almost an inevitability that Denver’s run would end. We all know what happened next.
But this time, the tables are very much turned. The Nuggets are the heavy favorite, and no one really expects LA to put up much of a fight. But in basketball as with anything, you can be most dangerous when everyone is counting you out and writing you off. The Lakers can use the fact that no one is considering them a serious threat as motivation to stun the world.
