US Democrats increasingly divided over Biden’s bid

As Democrats clash over whether Biden should stay in the race or drop out, many fear the turmoil will give Trump a better chance of winning.

President Joe Biden is continuing his re-election bid. Despite calls for him to drop out of the race and concerns about his chances of winning against Republicans, he insists he will not back down.

“If I were to slow down and not get the job done, that would be a sign to stop. But there is no such sign,” Mr. Biden said at a press conference on the evening of July 11.

However, the Democratic Party is in crisis as members are divided over what to do next, with the election less than four months away.

Democrats wanted to turn the election into a referendum on former President Donald Trump’s character and character. But the party’s turmoil could benefit Mr Trump ahead of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next week.

“I’ve talked to about 1,000 Democrats in the past week and everyone thinks the same thing: we’re in trouble. There’s no way Biden can win, the impeachment proceedings against Trump won’t work. If it turns into a referendum on Biden, we’ll lose. That’s what’s happening,” said a person close to the White House.

US President Joe Biden at a campaign event in Detroit, Michigan on July 12. Photo: AP
US President Joe Biden at a campaign event in Detroit, Michigan on July 12. Photo: AP

For many Democrats, the White House and Biden’s close advisers are trying to ignore calls to replace the candidate, continuing to urge the President to run.

“I feel like they’re not listening. We’re willing to take a risk. We have a team that’s looking at all the options and has decided that withdrawal is the way to go,” said a Democratic strategist.

The biggest problem for Democrats in this crisis is that it takes the American people’s focus off of Trump’s weaknesses.

“Every minute that Democrats don’t attack Trump, the cost gets higher and higher,” said Paul Begala, a veteran Democratic strategist.

When Mr. Biden announced his re-election bid in April 2023, Democrats on Capitol Hill were confident that he would defeat Trump. Despite some concerns about his age, they were convinced by his record in office, including his economic policy and his handling of foreign affairs, especially the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

But the first debate between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump disappointed them, as it failed to meet the initial expectation of drawing attention to the Republican candidate’s flaws.

As NATO allies gather in Washington this week, discontent with President Biden has escalated, with at least 18 Democratic congressmen and one senator publicly calling for a change in presidential nominee.

“President Biden’s accomplishments in office are immense, undeniable. He leaves behind a good legacy . But he cannot risk those legacies, those achievements, and American democracy to continue to fight Donald Trump,” said Jim Himes, a Connecticut state lawmaker and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

But Mr Biden also has loyal defenders, particularly among black and Hispanic lawmakers.

“What you’re seeing is people destroying each other, the worst thing I’ve ever seen,” said California Democratic state legislator Juan Vargas. “We have one candidate who did a great job as president, another candidate who became a criminal. And now we’re attacking someone who did a great job.”

However, Democratic leaders, including Senator Chuck Schumer and Representative Hakeem Jeffries, have not spoken out strongly in support of Mr. Biden in the past week. Former President Barack Obama has not spoken out in recent days.

Nancy Pelosi, the former House Speaker and one of the party’s most influential leaders, told MSNBC this week that Biden had to make a decision. Observers said she was subtly suggesting that Biden might have to reconsider his presidential ambitions.

“She didn’t pressure him, she let him think it through. It was very subtle,” Begala said.

Democrats’ concerns about Biden stem from polling data that shows the president’s path to victory is narrowing. Since the debate, Trump has increased his lead over Biden to 1.9 percentage points, according to Fivethirtyeight. The Republican candidate also leads in all the battleground states.

“This is the worst possible situation for President Biden’s campaign,” said David Wasserman, a member of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report political analysis group in Washington.

Many Democrats fear that if voters feel their party has no chance of winning, they will stay home on Election Day.

“That would be a disaster for the Democrats. Trump could win states that Biden easily won in 2020, like Maine, New Hampshire and New Mexico,” Wasserman said.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden on stage in Atlanta, Georgia on June 27. Photo: AFP
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden on stage in Atlanta, Georgia on June 27. Photo: AFP

Biden’s campaign dismissed such negative assessments. “We have multiple paths to the 270 electoral votes we need. Right now, winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is the clearest path to that goal. But we also believe Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia are not out of reach,” campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said this week.

During a press conference on July 11, President Biden said he would only reconsider his candidacy if he was told he could not win. “They don’t say that. No poll says that,” he said.

But that comment was immediately slammed as wild by David Axelrod, Obama’s former political strategist. “It seems like the Biden team hasn’t been upfront with him about what the data shows. Age is a big concern and his margin of victory is very slim,” Axelrod said.

Even if Mr Biden stays in the race, his prospects could be in jeopardy if Democratic donors turn away. The US president suffered a blow this week when George Clooney, the actor who hosted fundraisers for him, called on the president to withdraw.

Ning Mosberger-Tang, the leader of a climate change donor group, warned that if Democrats lose the White House, they could lose the House and Senate, which have the power to confirm Supreme Court justices.

“I’m very worried. We may disagree about who’s running. But I think everyone agrees that we’re at a very critical point, potentially leading to an irreversible outcome for a long time,” Mosberger-Tang said.

One of the biggest questions for Democrats if Biden leaves the race is whether his replacement can beat Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris is widely seen as a potential pick, but polls suggest her support is unlikely to be enough to win.

Sherman, the California lawmaker, said that “if you have to change horses in midstream,” Ms. Harris is the logical choice. But he warned that “any process after Mr. Biden leaves will be chaotic.”

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