A new electoral college model published on Monday by a reputable pollster is excellent news for former President Donald Trump ahead of his Tuesday evening debate with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Nate Silver’s forecast from last week gave former President Trump his highest probability of winning since late July, with a 60.1% chance of securing the Electoral College. In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris had a 39.7% chance of victory.
Since then, Trump’s chances of winning have risen, with the forecast now giving him a 64.4% chance of securing the Electoral College, compared to Harris’ 35.3%. Additionally, Harris’ likelihood of winning the popular vote has declined from 58% to 56%. The forecast projects Harris will win 256 electoral votes, while Trump is expected to secure 282.
Meanwhile, the model indicates that Republicans have gained between 0.3 and 1.2 points in each swing state over the past week. As a result, the former president is now projected to win all seven battleground states. Previously, the model had shown Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in Michigan and Wisconsin, Newsweek reported.
Political scientists and analysts have suggested that the upcoming debate, hosted by ABC, could be “make or break” for Harris, who has maintained a lead in the polls since becoming the candidate. This follows the first debate between Biden and Trump, which led to the 81-year-old president ending his re-election campaign.
“This is kind of a make-or-break moment for both candidates,” Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at Fresno State, told KSEE. “Harris really needs to present herself well and Trump needs to try to stop her from presenting herself well.”
That said, ABC News published a poll just 24 hours before the debate touted Harris’ rising popularity among “likely voters,” but there’s a catch — the survey was from late August, almost two weeks ago.
The article bizarrely asserts that “closer inspection suggests shift to Harris in several groups when comparing all adults with probable voters—notably, those younger than 40, younger women in especially, and Black people” after characterizing the polling between Harris and Trump as “virtually identical.”
“This analysis, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, finds that support for Harris goes from 54 percent of all adults younger than 40 to 64 percent of those identified as likely voters,” ABC claimed. “Trump’s support, meanwhile, drops from 42 percent of adults in this age group to 33 percent of those likely to vote.”
Strangely missing from Monday’s piece, ABC omitted all pertinent information regarding polls, including dates, sample size, and margin of error.
The story drew criticism for its timing, with some suggesting the network was attempting to position Harris in a better spot before the debate.
Washington Examiner correspondent Byron York wisely pointed out that due to the shortened election season, any information from late August will be woefully out of date by the second week of September.
“Posted this morning, this appears to be based on an ABC poll conducted August 23-27,” York posted to social media platform X. “ABC didn’t do a new poll to set the stage for its own debate?”
Posted this morning, this appears to be based on an ABC poll conducted August 23-27. ABC didn’t do a new poll to set the stage for its own debate? https://t.co/ZhNNXQqUnH
— Byron York (@ByronYork) September 9, 2024
“This poll was conducted last month. And new polls – even left-leaning ones – now show Trump back in the lead,” Daily Caller correspondent Rusty Weiss noted on the X platform. “Weird how that’s not mentioned at all in your report. Almost like you’re trying to set up a particular narrative heading into your own debate.”
Silver provided updated data on Monday showing that Trump leads Harris by a decisive 64.4% to 35.3% in the national estimate.
