A new Wall Street Journal survey that has the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris at a statistical tie is good news for the former, according to the pollster.
The poll shows Harris leading Trump by 1 point, with 48% to Trump’s 47%, among registered voters in a direct matchup. If independent and third-party candidates are included on the ballot, Harris’s lead increases to 2 points, at 47% to Trump’s 45%. However, given the margin of error, the race remains too close to call.
The survey, released Thursday, is the first instance of Harris leading Trump head-to-head in any of the Journal’s polls since last year. A poll from late last month had shown Trump with a 2-point lead over Harris.
The new poll reveals that while Harris has a 49% favorable rating and a 49% unfavorable rating, her performance as vice president is viewed less positively. Only 42% of voters approve of her handling of the role, compared to 51% who disapprove.
Michael Bocian, a Democratic pollster who worked on the survey, told the Journal, “Voters are assessing her job approval as Biden’s vice president, but they are assessing her as her own candidate for president.” He said, “She has emerged successfully as a candidate.”
However, David Lee, a Republican pollster who worked on the survey, said after weeks of positive media coverage and a bump from the Democratic National Convention, “Kamala Harris has managed to tie Donald Trump nationally — and a tie nationally points to a sizable electoral win for Trump.”
He referenced the 2016 election, where Democrat Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by over 2 percentage points but lost the Electoral College to Trump.
A series of new polls indicate that the ‘surge’ Vice President Kamala Harris received after President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid last month is ending.
According to a recent poll by the Napolitan Institute, released on Friday, Trump is once again leading, similar to the lead he held over Biden before the Democrats redirected their support to Harris.
“In the race for the White House, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 46% to 45%. When leaners are included, the Napolitan News survey of 3,000 Likely Voters shows Trump ahead 49% to 47%. A week ago, the candidates were tied at 49% among Likely Voters,” the polling organization noted in a report on its findings.
“These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over. However, the core dynamics of the race remain unchanged. Love him or hate him, voters know what they think of Donald Trump. At this point in time, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown. That means events like the upcoming Democratic convention and presidential debates could have a bigger impact than usual.”
The organization stated that the presidential race remains too close to call at this stage. However, analysts have noted that in the past two elections, Trump has performed significantly better than his polling numbers suggested.
“Trump voters are slightly more likely to vote than Harris supporters. So, the former president does a bit better with a lower turnout. What’s especially amazing about this close race is that it’s quite plausible to envision either party winning a trifecta: control of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House. The most important race to determine Senate control is in Montana. The latest Napolitan News survey there shows Democrat Jon Tester with a narrow lead but the state’s political gravity is likely to boost Republican Tim Sheehy.
A report by Just the News cited the new polling data to explain that voters are “catapulting Trump to lead and ending Harris surge.”
The report noted Harris was leading Trump 44% to 43% in the same survey just a week ago, and held a five-point lead at the beginning of the month.
“These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over,” pollster Scott Rasmussen of the Napolitan Institute told Just the News.
