The Lakers need favorable matchups to make a deep playoff run.
Though the Los Angeles Lakers currently find themselves as the ninth seed in the Western Conference, there is no reason for doom and gloom quite yet. They still have LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing at an elite level and made a run from the play-in to the Western Conference Finals a year ago. They’ve also been playing a high level recently.
Since February 1st, the only teams in the West with a higher net rating than the Lakers are the New Orleans Pelicans, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks., per Cleaning the Glass Los Angeles has played like a top-six seed in that span. Unfortunately for them, getting to the top-six of the West seems unlikely with Los Angeles being 3.5 games behind Dallas for that spot, so they can expect to be in the play-in tournament.
But, the Lakers have shown they can win a series of single-elimination games before. They have done it twice in the play-in and did so again en route to winning the In-Season Tournament. Los Angeles can make a run if the field breaks right for them. If that happens, this is how it would look.
Play-In Game 1: Lakers meet Mavericks in 7-8 matchup
In reality, it’s unlikely the Lakers claw their way up the standings into the seventh or eighth seed. But they’d find a way to do so in an ideal scenario, and in that world, would face off with the Mavericks, who are currently in a three-way battle for sixth with the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings. Those teams are only separated by a half-game, so it’s anyone’s guess as to where they will land at the end of the season.
No one should necessarily want to go head-to-head with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but Dallas’ superstars may represent the Lakers’ least of all evils.
Los Angeles has a Domantas Sabonis problem with Sacramento, who they have not beaten this year and beat only once the year prior. The Lakers were able to beat up on the Suns earlier this season while their stars were hurt, but they have not fared well against Phoenix when Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal have been available. In the lone game Phoenix’s Big Three played together against the Lakers, they lost by 20 points.
So Dallas it is. The Mavericks buffed up their roster at the trade deadline and have seen immediate dividends. They’re a strong 12-6 since the deadline, sporting a +6.3 net rating that ranks seven in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass..
This definitely wouldn’t be a cakewalk for the Lakers by any means, but it might be the best matchup for them. Though Dallas added Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington to their roster, they still don’t have a ton of size to matchup with Anthony Davis and LeBron James. James is averaging 28 points, 8.3 rebounds and eight assists on 50.8% shooting from the field and 41.7% from three against the Mavericks this season. Davis has posted 25 points, 12 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.3 blocks and 0.7 steals per game when pitted against Dallas.
The Lakers don’t have great answers for Doncic or Irving, but the same holds true for Dallas with regard to James and Davis. Los Angeles is just 1-2 against the Mavs this season, but on paper, it looks like the best matchup for them considering the alternatives.
Round 1: Los Angeles faces off with Oklahoma City
If the Lakers somehow make the playoff field, they better hope and pray they run into the Thunder instead of the Denver Nuggets. The reigning champions swept them in the Western Conference Finals and have beaten Los Angeles in all three of their regular season meetings this season. But things have been different against Oklahoma City.
The upstart Thunder have been the biggest surprise of the NBA this season. They are far from a novelty, either. They boast the second-best net rating and point differential in the NBA, trailing only the Boston Celtics. But the Lakers have had their way against them. Los Angeles has won three of the teams’ four head-to-head battles this season, including each of the last three.
Experience and size aren’t everything, but the Lakers have the edge in both categories against Oklahoma City. The Thunder will be favorites, but if they draw Los Angeles, the team in purple and gold is going to like their chances of advancing against them more than they would against the defending champs in Denver.
